Enjoy Basketball: The 2022-23 Preseason All-Breakout Team

It’s another Friday without NBA action, and another edition of Enjoy Basketball, helping you get through the first full offseason since 2019 one newsletter at a time. Today, we’ll be showcasing an imaginary “All-Breakout” team made up of five NBA players who are primed to see big jumps in their production in 2022-23.

But before we dive into that, we got another poll for y’all. Let us know what you think the greatest 2K game of all time is. Personally, I have to go with 2k12, I can’t get that Curtis Blow intro out of my head even ten years later. 

The 2022-23 Preseason All-Breakout TeamPG: Markelle Fultz, Orlando Magic

Be honest, there’s few players in the league we all want to see succeed more than Markelle Fultz.

The former first overall pick out of Washington has dealt with multiple brutal injuries during his short time in the NBA, from a shoulder condition that made him nearly unable to shoot a basketball, to a torn ACL that held him out of all but 26 games over the past two seasons.

And after all that adversity, he still shows just as much promise as he did on draft night over five years ago, even if his playstyle may be completely different. 

At the end of last season, Fultz showed all the signs of someone on the verge of a breakout campaign. After shaking off the post-injury rust, he was electric in limited playing time. Over the final eight games of the season, Fultz never failed to score in double figures and shot nearly 50% from the field. He probably will never become the long range shooter he once was in college, but it’s an incredible feat that he’s managed to completely remodel his offensive mindset without it. His scoring game now revolves around a steady diet of crafty finishing around the rim and a midrange game reminiscent of a bygone era in the best way.

But nowhere has Fultz taken a bigger jump than his playmaking. Although he certainly had good passing chops coming into the draft, Fultz was primarily seen as a score-first shooting guard. In Orlando, Fultz has reinvented himself as a pass-first player, and a great one at that. Let’s put it this way, last season only two players had more assists per 36 minutes than Fultz’s 9.9, Trae Young and Chris Paul.

The Magic are in desperate need of an elite playmaker next to Cole Anthony or Jalen Suggs in the backcourt, leaving a starting role wide open for Fultz. The production was there last season, the minutes will be there for him to take this year, so don’t be surprised if you see Fultz near the top of the assists chart and throwing up lobs to Paolo Banchero on SportsCenter.

SG: Jalen Green, Houston Rockets

It seems almost unfair to put such a highly-touted player like Jalen Green on this list, but not enough people recognized how truly spectacular he was down the stretch last season. 

After the all-star break, the G-League Ignite product put up near all-star level scoring production, jumping from under 15 to over 22 points per game. But it wasn't just the total volume that made Green's scoring jump so impressive, it was the fact that his efficiency INCREASED while doing it. His 58.9% true shooting post all-star break would have been the best among all rookie guards last year, and in the top twenty among all guards regardless of age. 

The late rookie season scoring outburst is very reminiscent of one of this year's breakout players, Minnesota's Anthony Edwards. Just like Green, Edwards struggled at first to score efficiently in the league before putting up monster numbers in the second half of his rookie year. Those numbers carried seamlessly into this season, where he was a key reason why Minnesota made the playoffs for just the second time since 2004. Both players are world class athletes whose early-career scoring problems didn’t come from a lack of ability, just a lack of reps against NBA-caliber players. 

On a recent appearance on the Bill Simmons podcast, Green gave three goals for his sophomore season, average 20-25 points per game, make the all star team, and win more than 20 games. With his talent, all three are certainly within his grasp. 

SF: Keldon Johnson, San Antonio Spurs

By some peoples definition, Keldon Johnson may have already broken out this year. The third year pro out of Kentucky averaged career-highs nearly across the board, and he had a lot to do with San Antonio making a surprise appearance in the play-in tournament. 

But, with all-star guard Dejounte Murray departing for Atlanta via trade, there’s every reason to believe that Johnson can make another leap this year as the focal point of a Spurs team that desperately needs someone to step up and take on the brunt of the scoring load. 

We saw hints of that version of Johnson down the stretch last season. He scored 20+ points in nine straight games to end the year, including averaging 22-5-4 in a four game stretch with Murray out injured during which the Spurs went 3-1. The most noticeable improvement? His propensity to get to the line. Johnson got to the charity stripe 40% more after the all star break, and converted effectively at a nearly 78% rate. 

The biggest question mark in Johnson's game? What version of a long range shooter they’ll be getting from him next year. He was an absolute marksman to start the year, making over 50% of his threes in November and December, but tapered off as the season went along. If he can combine his late season free throw rate with his early season three point shooting, Johnson could take the step from good to great as a scorer.

The 20 point per game threshold, and maybe even an all-star appearance, are certainly within Johnson's grasp in 2022-23 if he seizes the opportunity. 

PF: Jalen Smith, Indiana Pacers

It’s okay Pacers fans, you don’t have to hide Jalen Smith from the rest of us anymore. 

The former top ten pick was little more than a bit-part player in Phoenix, averaging less than ten minutes per game over only 56 appearances. But Indiana's front office saw something in Smith, and made sure to get him included when Phoenix came calling about the availability of Torey Craig. 

And what would you know, when Smith actually got a consistent role and playing time in Indiana, he produced. Not only did Smith set new heights for himself as a scorer around the rim, hitting nearly 80% of his shot within three feet, but he finally seemed to find his long range shooting stroke that seemed to have eluded him since his final season at Maryland. He wasn’t afraid to shoot it either, his 5.5 three point attempts per 36 minutes would have ranked in the top 25 among big men over the course of the season. 

But where Smith truly shines is as a rebounder, especially for his position. His rebounding percentage of 17.3% ranks in the top five among power forwards, and makes him a great frontcourt partner for Myles Turner, who is more focused on rim protection than rebounding and could use a solid glass cleaner playing next to him

And just like Smith can help Turner on the boards, Turner can help make up for Smith's struggles on the defensive end. Smith’s greatest weakness has always been his defense, which is a big part of why he got limited playing time in Phoenix, but playing next to an All-Defensive caliber center in Turner will take a lot of pressure off him in that regard and allow him to focus on what he does best. 

Pacers Head Coach Rick Carlisle has publicly announced his support of Smith and his intention to start him next season. With a good defensive center behind him and a re-found three point shot, Smith is on track to see a serious increase in his overall production next season.  '

C: Isaiah Hartenstein, New York Knicks

It might not have been apparent to everyone due to his low minutes count last season, but few centers can do as much on both ends of the court as Isaiah Hartenstein. 

Hartenstein really gives you a little bit of everything. He might not stretch the floor, but he is a career 60% shooter who is reliable as they come finishing around the rim, making over 75% of his shots within three feet last year. On defense, few centers contest more shots around the rim per minute than Hartenstein, and he’s adept at forcing turnovers, ranking in the top ten percent among big men in both steal and block percentage. 

But it’s his most underrated attribute that makes him stand out from the crowd, his playmaking. Hartenstein is by all metrics one of the best passing big men in the league. He’s elite at finding the open man both out of the post and at the elbow, and his nearly 2:1 assist to turnover rate shows that he can facilitate without being a liability in the turnover column. 

Depending on the Knicks thoughts on third year center Mitchell Robinson, Hartenstein might not start right away in New York. But given that the injury bug seems to bite Mitch Rob more than mosquitoes do, it’s probably just a matter of time before Hartenstein gets the starting role he’s been building towards his entire career. 

But, for this breakout to happen, Hartenstein will have to make some improvements on his biggest weakness, his propensity to foul. He averages a career 5.9 fouls per 36 minutes, and his 4.9 per 36 last season ranked 8th worst in the NBA. In order to get real consideration for a starting role, he’ll have to get that number down closer to four. 

With not a lot of breaking news going on during the dregs of the offseason, let’s take a look at some new intel that won’t be relevant for nearly a decade.

Congratulations Sixers fans! Your team is getting a new arena … in 2031. That’s right, the Sixers already have plans to build a new stadium in the heart of Center City Philadelphia after the lease at their current, the Wells Fargo Center, expires at the end of the 2029-30 season. The project is expect to cost around $1.3 billion and, good news for the taxpayers, will be entirely privately funded. 

"We know the best thing, we believe, for the city, for our fans and for our organization, is to be downtown in a state-of-the-art facility that's going to be privately funded by our ownership team," Sixers president Tad Brown said in a correspondence with ESPN. "And that's going to create a brand-new environment, a whole new environment, that's going to also really give a great economic boost in a development boost to a part of town that really needs it. "We think it's a win-win for the city and for our organization."

It’ll be ready just in time for 37 old Joel Embiid and 41 year old James Harden to make one last run at the title, I hope you’re ready Philadelphia. 

A future NBA billionaire was just drafted. He’s the first of many more to come - Mike Vorkunov (The Athletic)

Ty-Shon Alexander’s Winding Road Back To Charlotte - Sam Perley (NBA.com)

Every NBA Team's Biggest Question After 2022 Free Agency - Zach Buckley (Bleacher Report)

What’s behind the Lakers’ sudden need for speed? - Alex Regla (Silver Screen and Roll)

That’s all for today's newsletter! For our friends in Europe, make sure to keep cool during the heatwave. Maybe stay inside and watch a few classic NBA games. 

Thank you to everyone for the continued support during the offseason, see y’all next week.

-Spencer Poole

Trivia Answer: The five active NBA players with three championships are Danny Green, Kevon Looney, Udonis Haslem, Javale McGee, and the immortal Patrick McCaw.

Trivia Question: Keeping in the spirit of breakout seasons, which player has had the biggest increase in points per game between seasons in NBA history? Hint: It didn’t happen this century.