Enjoy Basketball: Ranking the top 15 players 5 years from now

Hey Team Enjoy Basketball!

Today, we are going to talk about time. The past, present, and future of basketball ebbs and flows with rising new talents and older players who must step down. Today we're gazing into our crystal ball to predict the top 15 NBA players in 5 year's time. Before we look forward, let's look backward and get some nostalgia going:

Let's address the elephant in the room: this list will be wrong. Everything here is speculation based off the performance we've seen from these young stars and how they project into the future. After all, if the NBA were so predictable, why would we pay attention so closely and discuss future possibilities?

If you want a laugh before we dive in, check out this Bleacher Report article from 2012 doing this same exercise and see how their predictions, however reasonable at the time, ended up being completely wrong. And now we will make similar fools of ourselves.

Almost Made the Cut: Scottie Barnes (26), Paolo Banchero (24), Chet Holmgren (25), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (29), Donovan Mitchell (31), Brandon Ingram (30), Karl-Anthony Towns (31), Jamal Murray (30), Jaylen Brown (30) *NOTE: age is that in 2027*

Aged Out: LeBron James (42), Steph Curry (39), Kevin Durant (38), Kawhi Leonard (36), Jimmy Butler (37), Paul George (37), Anthony Davis (34)

#15 - Cade Cunningham (Age in 2027: 26)

Though Cade didn't win Rookie of the Year in a loaded draft class, he projects to be a do-it-all scorer and passer who can lead a team in the playoffs as the best player. One weakness we've seen is that only 21% of his shots come at the rim and he makes just 59% of said attempts. With five years to improve his finishing ability, decision making, and shot creation, the 6'6" point guard could easily be a top 15 player in the NBA.

# 14 - Victor Wembanyama (Age in 2027: 23)

Okay, hear us out. Victor will be 23 years old five years from now. Luka Doncic, Trae Young, and Ja Morant are all top 15 players and all are 23 or younger. Following suit, it makes sense that someone not yet in the league will crack this list. For Wembanyama, the most hyped up prospect in years, we project that he could reach top 15 status by 2027 if he pans out accordingly. The Frenchman stands at 7'3" and boasts an incredible 7'8" wingspan, allowing him to block shots at an elite level and shoot over any defender with his picture-perfect jump shooting form. Basically, think of KD x Porzingis x Chet Holmgren, plus a French accent.

#13 - Evan Mobley (Age in 2027: 26)

More speculation! Mobley could very well be a top 3 defender in the NBA at just 26 years old. Being this elite defensively at the most relevant defensive position makes Mobley absurdly impactful. Already averaging 15 points per game in his rookie season, Mobley seems to have 20+ point per game seasons in the cards. Elite offensive bigs like Jokic, Embiid, and KAT can handle and shoot from anywhere, so it will be interesting to see if Mobley can follow suit. Placing him at the power forward position next to Jarrett Allen for the foreseeable future should stretch his ball handling and shooting chops, which could pay dividends in the future.

#12 - Bam Adebayo (Age in 2027: 30)

This one sorta stumped us. At just 25, Bam Adebayo is already a top ~5 defender in the league and a perennial all star caliber guy. However, in the same vein as Ben Simmons, Bam Adebayo has the physical capacity to be an elite scoring talent but has yet to crack 20 points per game. Perhaps he will get over the hump - people used to criticize Nikola Jokic for a similar tendency. But, it's hard to see a path in which Bam makes a ~10 slot jump because of his unproven scoring volumes and already elite defense.

#11 - Anthony Edwards (Age in 2027: 26)

Anthony Edwards could legitimately averaged 30 points per game in 2027 or even sooner. The young shooting guard is a prolific slasher and blows by defenders with increasing ease after just his second season. Consequently, Edwards' ceiling is through the roof and he could very well end up higher on this list. The main roadblock? Shooting. While Edwards has hit some flashy stepback threes, he is simply average at them on the whole. For a score-first guard, this is vital to his growth. For example, Kawhi Leonard slowly developed his shooting ability from average to great and in turn unlocked his entire offensive game. If Ant Man can boost this aspect of his game, the athletic specimen has no limits.

#10 - Zion Williamson (Age in 2027: 27)

This was undoubtedly the most difficult player to place on this list. If you guaranteed us that he would be completely healthy for the next 5 years, he would probably be at the 5 spot. In just his second season, Williamson averaged 27 points per game on a berserk 61% shooting, the most efficient of any 27+ point scorer in NBA history. So, we've seen all-time levels of efficiency and volume from this young talent and therefore we should rank him higher. But, he missed all of last year with an ambiguous lower body injury and has the most unique and dense frame in modern NBA history, both of which threaten future injury. We didn't want to leave him outside the top 10 because he is simply too good, so we'll place him here.

#9 - Lamelo Ball (Age in 2027: 26)

Is this a tad high? Who knows, when talking about a player as polarizing and dynamic as Lamelo Ball. He is in a similar tier as Ja Morant and Trae Young in terms of players who can be great scorers and passers, affecting all aspects of the game. In just his second season, Lamelo was an all star and averaged 20 points and nearly 8 assists. His unique combination of speed, height, and vision open things up in unique ways and could light the league on fire in a few years. Going forward, a massive question is if the Hornets could assemble a good enough roster for him to put up meaningful performances in big moments. Regardless, a guy who can be a top 3 passer and top 15 scorer sounds like a top 10 talent to us!

#8 - Devin Booker (Age in 2027: 30)

What to do with Devin Booker? Candidly, we can’t point to a glaring weakness in his game. He is an elite shot maker and three-level scorer, has enjoyed extensive success in both the regular and post season, and just made an All NBA First Team. If Phoenix can sustain their era of relative success, Booker should remain in this elite tier. Why don’t we have him higher? Well, if you compare him to the other guards near him on this list (Lamelo, Trae, and Morant) he is the least effective passer of the bunch, which limits his ability to make his teammates better. This is obviously speculative, but we see others taking greater leaps than Book, though he’ll surely remain an All NBA talent.

#7 - Trae Young (Age in 2027: 28)

By the age of 23, Trae Young has already averaged nearly 30 points in a season, nearly 10 assists in a season, and lead a team with no other all stars to the Conference Finals. Are you not entertained? Of course you are, which is exactly the magic of Ice Trae: his game is remarkably infatuating in the same vein as Kyrie Irving or Steph Curry. In 5 years, Trae will reach the average peak of an NBA career and hopefully he can fix the few glaring flaws in his game. Namely, he needs to manage to not be a complete liability on defense and find ways to navigate long, athletic wing defenders like those which the Miami Heat threw at him in the first round of this year's playoffs. If he hones his craft and gets further in the playoffs, there is no reason he shouldn't be in this slot.

#6 - Joel Embiid (Age in 2027: 33)

So, this one is risky. 33 is not old enough to seriously disable a healthy Joel Embiid from performing at an MVP-caliber level, and he should have a successful roster in Philly to display his talents, but it is Joel’s rampant injury history which makes this a ballsy pick. Still, we are taking Embiid’s side in this one. Steph Curry had one foot injury after another for years, but during his healthy seasons he’s remained a top-tier player. From 2019-2021, Kawhi Leonard was widely regarded as a top-5 talent in the NBA though he played an average of only 56 games a season. Still, when he did play, he was elite enough to propel himself up the rankings. We see a similar path unfolding for Embiid as for Leonard thus far, and therefore still place him at this spot. Barring grave injury, talent talks.

#5 - Ja Morant (Age in 2027: 27)

This past season, Ja Morant made a superstar jump and won a trophy for it. Of the previous 12 most improved players, four of them (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jimmy Butler, Paul George, and Kevin Love) eventually became top 10 players. Ja is definitely a top 15 talent in the league now, maybe higher. With continuous deep playoff runs and years to grow stronger and develop a more seasoned jumper, the sky is the limit. We elected to put him above other young guards like Trae, Booker, and Ball because he made All NBA Second Team at just 22 years old, demonstrated that he is an elite floor raiser, and probably has the most room in his game – shooting – to still grow. All in all, a prime Morant could look a lot like a prime Westbrook.

#4 - Nikola Jokic (Age in 2027: 32)

There's honestly not much to say with this one. We don't see Jokic getting particularly better given that he has fully entered his prime, but we also don't project him to decline because his game is perhaps the least centered on athleticism of any superstar in modern NBA history. Barring substantial injury, Jokic seems like a lock to remain a top 5 talent.

#3 - Jayson Tatum (Age in 2027: 29)

By this time, Jayson Tatum's bag will be deeper than the Boston Harbor. Like other smooth wings such as KD or Paul George, we think Tatum's full skillset will come into its own during his late 20's. *Insert a "he's only 19!" joke here* Tatum's combination of size, shot creating, shot making, and defense enshrines himself as a top 5 talent in the coming years. It also helps that the Celtics should make more deep playoff runs, giving him many opportunities to shine in big moments.

#2 - Luka Doncic (Age in 2027: 28)

At second, we give you Luka Doncic. At only 23, Doncic is a top 5 player in the NBA and will only hone his game further for the next 5 years. He has a combination of shot making and passing ability rarely seen spliced together, but Luka makes it work and will continue to do so. Throw in some team success to boost his resume and shift some narratives, and he'll be a clearcut top-2 guy in the NBA.

#1 - Giannis Antetokounmpo (Age in 2027: 32)

Giannis might be the best player in today's NBA, and we don't see a reason why anything would change in five years. Perhaps Luka could overtake him because he's a few years younger, but Giannis' peak fitness has prevented any significant injury and his finely tuned athleticism projects to be more like LeBron's longevity than Shaquille O'Neal's sharp decline in volume once hitting 30. Plus, Giannis adds a new layer to his game every year, whether it be ball handling or midrange shooting. Between Giannis and Luka, we give the edge to the Greek Freak specifically for his defense. Today, these two project to define the 2020's in a LeBron and Durant fashion. Let's continue to watch greatness unfold!

Are NBA teams relying on more self-created shots? - Ethan Fuller (Basketball News)

With LeBron James Jr. Nearly Grown, Could Dad’s Preposterous NBA Dream Become Reality? - Rodger Sherman (The Ringer)

Bill Russell’s Words Were Worth the Wait - Harvey Araton (The New York Times)

We can guarantee you that this list will be wrong. In fact, it will probably be very, very wrong in some aspects. One of the guys might fall from their potential for one reason or another, and another person could have an unforeseen, meteoric rise to superstardom.

But isn't that what makes the NBA amazing? If it was predictable, everything would be straightforward and the discussion around basketball, including this newsletter, would be a lot more dull. Cheers to limitless possibilities!

- Conor Geelan

Trivia Answer: The answer to Monday's trivia question is Dwight Howard! Superman has brought down 17,627 rebounds through his career, putting him at first amongst active players and tenth all time. Realistically, he is very likely to eventually pass Tim Duncan for 6th all time! Shoutout D12!

Trivia Question: Who is the shortest player to ever win the Slam Dunk Contest? (Bonus points for his height!)