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It’s FINALS time, baby. 🏆

Game 1 tips off tomorrow, and we’re already counting down the hours. Two new squads, one giant stage—someone’s about to write a brand new chapter in NBA history. We’ll be breaking down the matchup and all the key storylines for you in this newsletter, along with our reaction to the latest coaching bombshell in New York.

Before we dive in, check out the latest episode of WAG Talk and drop a comment tagging who we should interview next!

Today’s Lineup

🎉 Happy birthday to Greg Monroe and Sonics legend Xavier McDaniel! 🎉

Thibs Out In NY

The Knicks have officially parted ways with HC Tom Thibodeau after five seasons, four playoff runs, and back-to-back 50-win campaigns in New York.

Honestly? It’s a tough one to fully wrap our heads around.

On one hand, Thibs revitalized Knicks basketball, bringing them back to relevance and guiding the franchise to its first Conference Finals of the 21st century. By all accounts, he had the locker room: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, and other leaders were vocal in their support for him.

But at the same time—deservedly or not—Thibs carries a “floor-raiser” label as a coach. That’s someone who can get a team to be very good, but maybe not quite great. With New York fully committed to this core, it looks like they’re swinging for higher upside, even if it’s a risky play.

NBA Finals Preview 🏆

The Pacers: A Run for the Ages 🏃‍➡️

This year's Pacers remind us a lot of last year's Mavericks: they were much better than their regular season record indicated in the second half of the year. Sitting two games below .500 on New Year’s, Indy was the fourth-best team in basketball the rest of the way and embraced their identity as a group that runs fast, takes care of the ball, and shares the rock.

The playoffs were more of the same for the ‘Cers, as convincing wins in five over Giannis’ Bucks and the 64-win Cavs turned millions of heads, before they silenced the rest of the doubters in style against the Knicks.

Tyrese Haliburton is looking like an all-time playmaker with a clutch gene not seen in Indy since the days of Reggie Miller, Pascal Siakam is proving in his second city that he has what it takes to be a championship-level co-star, and they’re both surrounded by a bevy of players who can hit shots with the best of them.

The odds might be long against the juggernauts in OKC, but don’t count out Indiana’s finest.

The Thunder: Defensive Dominance Manifested 🌩️

We talked about how good the Pacers have been since Jan. 1st, so let’s dump a bucket of cold water on that by mentioning that OKC was seven wins and a +8.1 net rating difference better during that same stretch. Seriously. More people need to appreciate that the 24-25 Thunder will have (at least on paper) a case as the greatest single-season NBA team ever if they win the Finals.

Led by the ruthlessly efficient reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, it’s hard to find a real weak point in this team that has, for the most part, crushed the competition this year. On offense, the Thunder thrive in transition and use SGA and Jalen Williams’ excellent rim pressure to generate looks for a cast of role players who are all comfortable shooting the basketball.

But anyone who’s caught even a quarter of an OKC game this year knows the secret sauce to their recipe of success is a defense that has players around the league waking up in cold sweats. Led by Lu Dort and Alex Caruso, the Thunder are relentless with their hands, denying post entries and clogging passing lanes for 48 minutes at a time.

Four games away from a spot near the top of the all-time lists, OKC has shown they have what it takes—and then some—to walk away as champs.

Keys to the Series 🗝️

Pacers: Hali keeping control

With his 5.6 AST/TO ratio, only a few players in NBA history have been able to mesh elite vision with world-class ball security quite like Haliburton. Against an OKC team that needs transition looks off of steals to get their offense going, Hali taking care of the ball will be even more critical than usual. If he can have more passing clinics like his 15 AST, 0 TOV performance against the Knicks, the Pacers might just be able to pull this off.

Thunder: Finding consistency from three

While the Thunder have a roster filled with capable shooters, they have proven to be inconsistent at times. Look no further than the Nuggets series, where poor shooting performances from guys like Dort, J-Dub, and Caruso had OKC within a game of elimination. If Indiana can do enough to shake some of the Thunder’s less reliable shooters off their game, it could have drastic consequences for their halfcourt offense.

Our Finals Picks ✍️

It’s time for a little ENJOY roundtable—who’s winning the Finals, and in how many games?

Austin: With how well they played in transition and off turnovers in the ECF, the Pacers are primed to fight fire with fire against the high-flying Thunder. I don’t think Haliburton’s magic has run out just yet, but OKC’s ability to turn games into blowouts in mere minutes should be too much for Indiana to play spoiler.

The Pacers will take a game at home, but SGA will join elite company as the first Finals-winning MVP in a decade. Thunder in 5.

Spencer: You know what? Why not dare to dream.

The Pacers have already made it this far, and Haliburton is just the right combination of shifty and secure with the ball to withstand OKC’s defensive barrage. Add in Siakam’s size advantage against many of the Thunder’s wings (and a heaping serving of good luck), and Indy shocks the world and takes down the Thunder in an epic seven-game series. Pacers in 7.

Walker: At the risk of picking against the Pacers and falling victim to the same trap that has made so many analysts look silly this postseason, I’m taking OKC.

The Thunder’s combination of an all-time great defense and an elite shot creator at the peak of his powers make them not only the league’s best team, but its most consistent. Indiana has the firepower to take a game or two, but over the course of the series, I see the Thunder’s length posing problems the Pacers can’t solve. This title is OKC’s to lose. Thunder in 6.

Conor: Indiana incinerated the Knicks with their transition offense, breathtaking ball movement, and superb spacing. The problem for Reggie Miller is the Thunder also excel in these facets, and they also boast the best defense in a decade (or two?) that’s perfectly designed to stifle an offense like Indiana’s with their length, physicality, and flexibility.

Pacers good. Thunder better. OKC brings the brooms. Thunder in 4.

Three in the Key

You’re doing breakfast wrong

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Toast? Too light. Cereal? Mostly sugar. Skipping it altogether? Not ideal.

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Oh, and did we mention? It’s delicious.

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Find your fuel

Signing Off

Thanks for reading, y’all! No matter who you support, this is the best time of year to be a basketball fan. Embrace it!

Talk soon,

Spencer Poole